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Kerryover
Massive get out the vote drives have generated a flood of new voters who could have a revolutionary impact on state and local politics beyond the presidential election, or not. An estimated 207,000 new, first-time voters have registered in Oregon since May, according to data compiled by the Oregon AFL-CIO. Lane County has 26,805 new voters. Eugene legislative districts added 13,617 new voters. Such large numbers are more than enough to sway key elections. If all those new voters had voted earlier, the state might never have suffered a school funding crisis and Republican Gordon Smith might not be senator. Locally, the West Eugene Parkway could be long dead. But any continuing impact of the new voters all depends on if they continue to vote and how they vote.
Steady Voters? Tim Hibbits, one of the state's leading pollsters, says "It's too early to say" what the new voter impact will be. "This is an election that has generated an enormous amount of passion," Hibbits says. But in future elections with less passion, new voters "might not show up again at the polls." Even if they continue to vote, it's unclear whether new voters will check boxes very far down the ballot. Lacking knowledge of how to vote on many state and local measures and candidates, "they tend to leave a lot more races blank," says Jim Moore, a political scientist at Pacific University in Forest Grove. Oregon AFL-CIO President Tim Nesbitt says he thinks the new voters will continue to be a force. "These are very motivated voters," Nesbitt says. "Once you've voted, you're more likely to vote again." But Hibbits points to the 1992 Presidential election where independent Ross Perot helped boost turnout among young independent voters who didn't show up again in later elections. The 1992 election is a poor precedent for continuing participation, Moore agrees. But he also points out that a big boost in new young voters after 18 year olds got the vote 30 years ago continued for more than a decade. And Moore says Oregon's easy vote by mail system may mean more new voters keep voting.
Who Are They? Young people make up the biggest chunk of the new voters. "It's about young voters," says Nesbitt. He points to data showing that before May, 10 percent of the state's registered voters were under 25. Now 35 percent are. In Eugene's three state Legislature districts, almost 58 percent of the new voters come from the south Eugene district that includes the UO. The Associated Students of the University of Oregon reported registering 7,669 college students this year. Statewide, campus registration drives reported about 33,000 new registrants. So many of the new voters may be young people because so many young people haven't voted in the past. National studies indicate as few as 20 percent of college students vote. In Eugene, voter turnout in student areas has been about half the city average. But more than 70 percent of college students planned to vote in this election, according to one national survey. Almost half the eligible voters in the U.S. don't vote, and the new voters aren't likely just young. Studies have shown that single women, minorities and the poor also have low voter registration rates and voter registration drives also targeted these people. A 2000 study by Northwestern University researchers found about 55 percent of nonvoters were young people, unplugged or cynical that their vote would change anything. Of the remaining older voters, about half were too indifferent or cynical to vote and about half were the alienated, less affluent and less educated.
How Will They Vote? Democrats have the edge in the drive to recruit new Oregon voters. Democrats registered 78,080 new voters compared to 55,825 for the Republicans, according to AFL-CIO data. But many of the new registrants, 63,006, signed up as independents. Hibbits says the idea that the new voters are heavily Democratic "is just not true." Hibbits says Oregon surveys showed that Kerry had a 10 percentage point edge among new voters compared to a 4 percent lead among people who had voted before. Overall, the surveys indicated a 6 point lead to Kerry, so the new voters provided at most a 2 percentage point edge, according to Hibbits. "The Democrats get an edge, but not an overwhelming edge." Hibbits points out that Bush supporters also had a big registration drive. "His supporters are pretty stoked up too." But Republicans were clearly worried that many of the new registrants would hurt them. With 20 percent of the new voters from the liberal Portland area, Republicans launched a legal challenge to new registrations in Multnomah County. Because new registrations were more Democratic and from more liberal areas of the state, it's clear the new voters will favor Democratic causes, according to Nesbitt. The big turnout on college campuses favors Democratics, Moore says. Such young voters tend to support environmental protection and oppose restrictions on gay marriage and other Republican social causes, according to Moore. Younger voters are "a modest plus for Kerry" but don't always vote Democratic, Hibbits says. National polls indicated 55 percent of such voters were for Kerry, but such support varies by state and between Eugene and Portland and rural Oregon, according to Hibbits. Younger voters are more liberal, pro-environment and pro-marijuana, Hibbits says, but they can also be more libertarian when it comes to opposition to taxes. "I don't think you can pigeonhole them." Moore says younger voters lean Democratic, although slightly less so than 30 years ago. Many register as independents but still often vote Democratic, he says. "They're huge into the environmental." Results of a Mock Student Election last month showed strong support for environmental causes among the 200 Oregon schools that participated. Almost 60 percent supported anti-logging Measure 34. Environment and education tied as the top priorities for students.
Effects If new voters do continue to vote and vote liberal in coming elections, the effects could be dramatic. Locally, just a tenth of the nearly 8,000 new voters registered at the UO could have tipped a close vote to reject the West Eugene Parkway in 2001. The campaign against the freeway through wetlands has been one of the leading environmental causes in Eugene for decades. A UO precinct voted 76 percent against the WEP, the highest percentage of any precinct in the city. But only 20 percent of those registered in the precinct voted, the lowest turnout in the city. Precincts in the city's poorer, more diverse Whiteaker neighborhood also showed combinations of big anti-Parkway votes and lower voter turnouts. UO students supported Kitty Piercy's successful campaign for mayor this year against conservative Nancy Nathanson. In one UO precinct, Piercy won 66 percent of the vote, although only 28 percent of registered voters cast ballots. Statewide, just a quarter of the new voters could have defeated Republican Sen. Gordon Smith when he first won election in 1996. The same new voter turnout would have defeated Measure 5 in 1990 and Measure 47 in 1996, averting the school and government services funding crisis that has dominated the state for more than a decade. Last year, half of the new voters could have passed Measure 28, an effort to fund schools, universities and state government with an income tax increase. Nesbitt says new voters could also help topple the Republican majority in the state legislature. Ironically, even if the new Democratic voters turn out to be just a one-time flash in the pan, it's certain they will have one lasting impact that they won't be proud of. Because of Measure 50, more registered voters means a higher hurdle for tax measures to support schools and other services new voters might favor. Under the law such measures in non-general elections must pass in an election in which a majority of those registered actually vote.
Now
What? For awhile, the local Carry Oregon headquarters was hot. Two thousand volunteers buzzed in and out while the office's five staff members worked 15-hour days, seven days a week. Visits from political hot shots like former Democratic front-runner Howard Dean, Senator Max Cleland and Teresa Heinz Kerry were regular events. Even singer-songwriter Carol King dropped in to make campaign phone calls.
But now it's over. With the passage of the Nov. 2 election comes the unraveling of the local Kerry-Edwards campaign. Volunteers and staff members are pulling up yard signs, unplugging phones and dismantling the field office on 16th Ave. The question that faces Carry Oregon's staff members and volunteers is: Now what? "How do we make this past three months become something that is embraced by the community and used consistently?" asks Get-Out-the Vote Coordinator Sara Chieffo, 24, at the Carry Oregon office. "What you see here will be shut down, but I think it's going to be a test of our community if we can keep it going." Volunteer Coordinator Becky Gladstone, 49, is reluctant to see local activism dissipate once the election ends. "People care. I think it's the nature of the community," she says. "The volunteerism that's happened here should be seen as not just an anomaly, but a pattern of progression." Perhaps moved by a sense of urgency or galvanized by the high levels of activism surrounding this election, unprecedented numbers of volunteers signed up to help with the Kerry campaign. "I have been so impressed by the wide variety of people who have dropped their lives to do this," Chieffo says. "It goes across every demographic."
One volunteer, 91-year-old Rosemary Batori, left her retirement community for six hours a week to do phone banking at the Carry Oregon office. A Eugene resident for 60 years, Batori has a history of political activism — but this election, she says, stood out as the most important of her lifetime. Batori opposes the Bush policies that caused the Iraq War, the mounting national debt and America's worsening image abroad. "I couldn't not volunteer," she says. At the other end of the age spectrum, 18-year-old Rebecca Freund, a South Eugene High School senior, volunteered three hours a week for the campaign. "I care really passionately about getting Kerry elected and getting Bush out of office. I know that's going to affect me and my life in the next four years a lot," she says. "It's nice to feel like you're doing something rather than just talking about it." Even after the Carry Oregon office closes, says Chieffo, Lane County will retain a wealth of resources: the knowledge gained from the campaign, the volunteer databases, and most importantly, the enthusiasm that inspired thousands of community members to volunteer for the effort. "We're part of a great moment here, and of course we'll miss that, but there are ways to use it and build on it," she says. "The last message that folks have to get is, 'Your work's not done. Let's keep this momentum going.' Getting Kerry in office isn't enough to change what needs to be done locally." Whether that can happen without the structure of the Kerry campaign remains to be seen. Gladstone points out that inspiration is one thing and organization is another. "It takes leadership to bring people together and do consensus-building," she says. "People will volunteer if you can present a good enough infrastructure for them to plug into." She adds that the key to maintaining effective activist networks is a sense of community. "When you're dealing with people, they come for the cause the first time, but they come the second time for the people they're dealing with," Gladstone says. Still, Chieffo doubts that local issues will draw the same levels of enthusiasm as the presidential election. "The massive numbers that we've seen may not be sustainable at their highest peaks," she says, "but advocacy is deeply tied to what we're doing, and the need for that never stops. What we've done here is created an outlet for people to learn what to do. I think that empowered with that information, people can remain activists." Even as she seeks the next worthy cause for her efforts, Gladstone plans to take a little time to relax. "We have done a good job here," she says. "This time, I am going to go to bed knowing that I've done what I can."
'Yee-haw
is Not a Foreign Policy'
Democratic Congressman Peter DeFazio of Springfield said he won by a wide margin in his district while Kerry struggled with the same voters because, "our politics are very different. I didn't have any confusion about the war in Iraq." DeFazio said "the most heartening thing about this election is the participation. I've seen more young people involved in this election than any other time I've been in politics. ... Young people vote, and I think we're going to pay attention."
Lane County Commissioner Peter Sorenson commented on the passage of Measure 37: "It's a wholesale attack on zoning and land use planning in the state. We're going to have to go to work to try to repair it."
Sean O'Keefe, playing with Jordan Lewis, said: "Since I'm with kids right now, I feel good, 'cause they're keeping it light. But overall, its kind of somber seeing all the red up there."
Marion Tilde, visiting Eugene from Germany, said: "I'm disappointed that the country is so conservative and hasn't learned, that they're still voting for Bush. I'm also disappointed about [Measure] 36, but happy about Peter [DeFazio]. I wish I would have been over in Germany. I know that most people in Europe would wish that Bush would not win. Bush is not very popular in Europe."
Kitty Piercy got a landslide vote for mayor, making her primary victory official. "Being elected mayor of Eugene is a big responsibility and a big honor, and I really look forward to this role," she said. Piercy said she will make promoting sustainable businesses for Eugene a top priority. "It makes good sense for our environment, and it makes good sense for our economy."
Lisa Arkin of Oregon Toxics Alliance said. "I can't believe that in the last few days that I've listened to the media that I hear them interviewing supposedly undecided voters and their comment is that they are impressed by Bush's honesty. I am completely bufuddled because day after day the headlines in the R-G and elsewhere say, 'No weapons of mass destruction,' 'Weapons not destroyed, but stolen,' 'Abuse of prisoners authorized by Bush staff.' People are saying this is the kind of honesty and leadership they respect."
Marilyn Heiken said: "I really appreciated what Peter DeFazio had to say tonight. He saw that young people came out in record numbers to vote and they give him some faith for the future. That resonated with me and gave me hope." Doug Heiken said: "Bush came here and campaigned almost exclusively on a radical timber agenda, and he did not win Oregon. So I think his wacky ideas of logging old growth to protect us from fire have been repudiated by the citizens of Oregon." Daughter in photo is Emma.
Jen Ryan, an Ohio resident visiting friends in Eugene, voted absentee and said, "I'm really apprehensive about the outcome. If Bush wins Ohio, I'll be afraid to say I'm from there. It definitely would be cool if Kerry winds Ohio, 'cause then I would feel like my vote made a difference."
A man identified only as Tony the Head Waiter said: "I'm the head waiter, and I'm looking for the person who ordered the empty warhead. It comes with a side of lies — freedom lies. I'm telling people to stop mad cowboy disease, and yee-haw is not a foreign policy. They want us to practice abstinence? OK, no Bush, no Dick, pull out now. And of course the difference between Vietnam and Iraq is that George Bush had a plan to get out of Vietnam."
Julia Kunko said: "This is horrifying. Some of our living-mates have said that they cannot believe how many people are voting for Bush, and how polarized our country is. Some of them were saying that South should secede!"
Steve McFall said: "I was feeling excited for awhile. I'm feeling a little down, a little sad, about the direction we're going, as a country. I don't want to put down the people I disagree with. That doesn't mean I won't try to convince them. I'm kind of running out of energy here."
Tim Boyle said: "I'm still optimistic. I'm sorry to hear that Measures 33 and 34 aren't passing, and 36 is passing. I'm just amazed that the majority doesn't see the way Bush has run this country into the ground. I'm horrified and depressed to see these early numbers."
Irvin Housinger said, "It constantly amazes me how selfish politicians seem to be. It seems that they're in it for power and not for the good of the country. It's so blatantly obvious with Bush. With Kerry it's not so apparent."
Willow Rose said, "I'm still hopeful. No matter what happens, we've got work to do."
Carol Melia said, "The revolution starts tomorrow. I'm excited that half the country has organized to fight what Bush represents. If Bush wins, we will step outside of any comfort zone we thought we had and be very comfortable with being in the streets a lot, challenging the media and creating alternative media. I'm excited by the fact that we have so much more power than we had four years ago." –
Peter Chabarek said, "I'm really glad Feldkamp is losing. It's nice to know we can defeat at least the local fascists."
Justin Lanphear said, "In general, you get the impression that the rest of the world isn't that stoked on us. With Kerry, there was a glimmer of hope. The cynical part of me thought that things would have to get worse before they got better — but I thought that four years ago too. My reactionary self wants the extremes. 'Should I move out of the country? I can't do anything for it.' But then there's another part of me that says, 'Simmer down. There are things I can do to make things better.'"
Eugene City Councilor Bonny Bettman commented on a city police station, Measure 20-88, failing for the third time by a wide margin. "I'm not surprised. The wording of the measure obfuscated the intent of the measure. I think the voters were confused. I think some of them were mad. They were intelligent enough to know there're higher priorities."
Wayde Johnson said: "I just hope that people come together if Bush does win and create something. You can't just watch TV and take a bong hit. That's not going to do shit. You gotta get out there and get seen and known and make your voice heard. I'm really worried about people not doing that. I don't want destruction of property, but people need to make a statement." |
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